Totally Cool if True

The results of a surprising new demographic study:

Two major new demographic studies estimate the American Jewish population at well above 6 million people, indicating a growing Jewish community that contrasts sharply with popular images of Jewish decline. In particular, scholars say, the new studies appear to refute a widely publicized survey conducted in 2001, which counted 5.2 million American Jews and sparked widespread anxiety over American Jewry’s future.

The most clear-cut refutation of the earlier figure comes in the newly published American Jewish Year Book, published by the American Jewish Committee, which sets the American Jewish population at 6.4 million. A separate study, being conducted by a new Jewish demographic institute at Brandeis University, is not yet complete, but the head of the institute told the Forward that the final estimate will likely be between 6 million and 8 million.

The earlier figure, 5.2 million, has been criticized by many American demographers as too low since it appeared. Nonetheless, it has gained traction in public discussion and has been cited by Israeli officials as confirmation of Israel’s central role in world Jewry. Earlier this year, a quasi-governmental Israeli think tank used the 2001 number in a report announcing that Israel had more Jews than America and was the world’s largest Jewish community for the first time in over 2,000 years. Until now many American demographers have hesitated to challenge the 2001 figures publicly because there was no good alternative. Now, however, the public consensus appears to be shifting.

“The buzz among social scientists — on the e-mails and over the coffee tables — has been, ‘We all know the number is higher,’” said sociologist Steven M. Cohen, who helped oversee the release of the 2001 National Jewish Population Survey. “We just don’t know exactly how much higher. This is the first post-NJPS effort to come out.”

The focus of the current debate is a matter of decimal points, but the stakes are higher: The verdict will have an impact both on communal policy-making and on the self-image of Jewish communities worldwide. The new numbers have not stilled the debate.

Israel’s most prominent demographer, Sergio Della Pergola, has stuck to the lower American figures, almost alone among prominent researchers. The new American Jewish Year Book allows for a continuing debate. Several hundred pages after the chapter announcing the 6.4 million figure, the book offers a chapter by Della Pergola on world Jewish population in which he offers and defends an estimate of 5.275 million American Jews.

The executive editor of the American Jewish Year Book, Lawrence Grossman, acknowledged that Della Pergola is now mostly alone in touting the lower figure. But, he said, Della Pergola is too respected a scholar to be ignored.

“The prestige of Della Pergola is such that he is not just one guy out there,” said Grossman, who edits the annual reference book for the American Jewish Committee. “I think that the Year Book does a service to its readers to indicate that this issue is not black and white.”

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