Rubicon3: The Year Comes to an End

December 20, 2006

The Year Comes to an End

The year draws to an uneasy close and we are faced with more questions than answers, and less success - much less - than I would have liked in the Middle East. In my opinion, the reasons for that are two-fold:

1. The Bush administration badly mishandled the war in Iraq. Note that I am still not giving in on the correctness of the war - I still think it was the right thing to do. But what a horrendous squandering of opportunity and what a hideous snafu has resulted from botched handling and lack of planning.

April 9th, 2003 - I remember it well, the day Saddam's statue was brought down and dragged around the square. The thousands of people who converged upon the prisons, looking for loved ones - dead and gone, killed by Saddam and his evil sons. Shock and awe. Shock and awe! We wrested control away, and had Saddam's army scattered and cowering.

And then, little by little, we allowed our advantage to dribble away.

There were not enough men on the ground. There was insufficient planning. The situation was misjudged. And every step along the way, it could have been fixed, but was not. Instead of taking control and anticipating in advance, we were running to try to keep up. We allowed the situation to get out of control. We did it. Us. The buck stops here.

2. Lack of character, lack of strength, ill-focused values and morality, cowardice, self-entitlement, self-righteousness, heads in the sand, childishness, irresponsibility and generalized weakness on the part of the Western world. We are psychologically ill-equipped for war. Cowardice and fear inform our every move, our every decision.

Number 1, above, is a relatively newly perceived reason (on my part) for the mess - one that has been niggling in the back of my mind for the past few months. I was at first tempted to write that this it is the most important reason for our current failure in Iraq. But as I thought things out further, I came to feel that it was more a chicken/egg scenario. I don't know which came first. I think both reasons have echoed back and forth off the other and both are influencing the outcome as we know it today.

The conundrum as I see it:

If Bush had felt the backing and encouragement of the entire US and Europe, he might have handled the aftermath of the war more decisively.
If Bush had handled the aftermath of the war more decisively, he might have felt the backing and encouragement of the entire US and Europe.

The consequences of having a united, steel-reinforced, unmoving and determined front, backed by proper planning and adequate men on the ground:

We all would have felt more self-confidence and less fearful.
The world would have felt more secure having an alliance of the US and Europe in charge.
The insurgents would have given up, perceiving the situation as one where there was no way they could win.
The result would have been peace and a greater potential for Democracy to have taken hold in the Middle East.
I don't think what happens between the Israelis and the Palestinians drives what goes on in the Middle East. I think how the Western world handles Iraq, Iran, Syria and Lebanon will determine the outcome between them. A united US and Europe with a take-charge attitude and a big army standing by to enforce the acceptance of Israeli sovereignty and to severly punish terrorism is something I would like to see.

Someone has to take charge. As I see it, we have no choice. We must win. I think that if we don't, the West will receive it as a blow from which it may never recover.

We could still pull it off. But each and every day, I feel less hopeful. I think the cowards are winning out, and I fear that Bush has lost his fire or will run out of time.

I ask the Magic 8 Ball whether there will be peace in the Middle East in my lifetime. The answer:

"Reply hazy, try again."

And that's the way I see us ending 2006.

***********************

At the same time, I am very happy for the things that are going well in my life, and feel lucky and thankful that as of Friday afternoon at 4:30 pm, I will have all of my family - husband and all three children - safely under my roof, together, for an entire week.

Otherwise

By Jane Kenyon

I got out of bed
on two strong legs.
It might have been
otherwise. I ate
cereal, sweet
milk, ripe, flawless
peach. It might
have been otherwise.
I took the dog uphill
to the birch wood.
All morning I did
the work I love.

At noon I lay down
with my mate. It might
have been otherwise.
We ate dinner together
at a table with silver
candlesticks. It might
have been otherwise.
I slept in a bed
in a room with paintings
on the walls, and
planned another day
just like this day.
But one day, I know,
it will be otherwise.

******************

2006: Personally happy, politically unhappy.

2007: ?

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Addendum:

Just came across this from US News and World Report:

Good News Out Of Iraq In the midst of all this gloom, the AP reports new Defense Secretary Robert Gates arrived in Baghdad this morning in an unannounced visit. And he was, it would appear, greeted by some good news. The New York Times reports Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has "tentatively approved" a US-backed coalition of Shiite, Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties in an attempt to "isolate" Moqtada al-Sadr. Also, the Washington Times and AP report Army Lt. Gen. Martin Dempsey, who is in charge of training the Iraq army and national police, said the "final target" of 325,000 trained personnel will be met this month, "with 'dramatic improvement' in performance envisioned by July." The Times notes Dempsey's "assessment comes as President Bush weighs options for changing strategy and tactics." Dempsey said Iraqi officials "are working to reform police, take more responsibility for their security and make financial investments in troops and equipment -- all steps toward freeing U.S. troops to return home." The AP adds evidence of Dempsey's optimistic assessment. US forces handed over security responsibilities in Iraq's northern Najaf province to Iraqi forces Wednesday morning.