The Jewish Vote

From my email box - the Republican Jewish Coalition says:

Jewish GOP Vote Hits 26.4%:
Strong Showing in a Tough Environment 

November 8, 2006, Washington, DC...According to exit polls conducted for the Republican Jewish Coalition* by leading pollster Arthur Finkelstein, the Jewish vote for Republicans held steady compared to reported results from 1992 to 2004. At the same time, in a difficult political environment, the national vote for Republicans declined significantly, resulting in the loss of control of the House and possibly the Senate.

According to the RJC exit polls of 1000 voters (margin of error +/-3%) taken yesterday, support for the GOP among Jewish voters was 26.4%.

The RJC polls found that among those who saw the RJC ads in local Jewish newspapers, support for Republicans rose to 35.4%, a nine percent increase over the average of 26.4% support for the GOP found in the RJC polls. In addition, due to our efforts, likely House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, along with several senior House Democrats, held a national townhall meeting with the Jewish community to defend their party’s record on Israel.

The RJC polls point to significant positive signs for Republicans in the Jewish community going forward. In keeping with previous election results, the RJC polls found that younger Jewish voters are more inclined to support Republican candidates. Among those under age 55, 30.7% voted Republican, compared to those age 55 and over, who voted 23.8% Republican. This is a good sign for the future, as Republicans continue to make inroads among younger voters.

The RJC polls confirmed that there is a gender gap among Jews - men voting Republican: 30.6%; women voting Republican: 22.6%.

Just as in the larger population, the more a voter attends religious services, the more likely he or she is to vote Republican. Among those who attend synagogue almost every day, 35.2% voted Republican. Among those who attend once a week, 31.8% voted Republican. And among occasional attendees, 23.1% voted Republican.

Similarly, Reform Jews voted 23.0% Republican, Conservative 25.2%, and Orthodox 42%.

“The results of this survey validate the RJC advertising campaign,” said RJC Executive Director Matt Brooks. “Our aggressive advertising in Jewish newspapers in key markets challenged Jewish Democrats to examine their party’s support for Israel. We pledge to continue these efforts going forward."

“We congratulate the Democrats on this victory and call on the leaders of their party in Congress to stand up to the liberal elements in the grassroots of their party who advocate a policy of neutrality toward Israel,” Brooks said.

*The RJC polls surveyed 1000 voters in Florida (22nd district), Pennsylvania (6th district), and the state of New Jersey. Margin of error: plus/minus 3%. These areas were chosen because of the highly competitive races taking place, as well as the fact that they were target areas of the RJC ad campaign.

From the JTA:

-Jews increased their numbers by two in the U.S. Senate and at least four in the U.S. House of Representatives. U.S. Rep. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who was backed by the Democrats, won Vermont´s Senate seat. U.S. Rep. Ben Cardin, also a Democrat, was projected to win Maryland´s seat. Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an Independent in Connecticut who has pledged to vote with the Democratic caucus, also won. Another two Jewish incumbent senators are up for re-election this year and were projected to win: Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.); and Sen. Herb Kohl (D-Wis.) The wins would raise Jewish representation in the Senate to 13, the most Jews that body has had. There were 26 Jews in the House in the last Congress. Six Jewish Democrats -- in Florida, Tennessee, Wisconsin, Arizona, Kentucky and New Hampshire -- were projected to win freshman bids. That means at least 30 Jews will serve in the House in the next Congress, with Cardin and Sanders ascending to the Senate.

-U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman defeated Ned Lamont, the cable TV magnate who used anti-Iraq war sentiment to best Lieberman in the Democratic primary. Lieberman, who backed the Iraq war, ran as an independent but pledged to vote with the Democratic caucus. Exit polls suggested Lieberman, the first Jew to feature on a viable presidential ticket in 2000, garnered 60 percent of the Jewish vote and Lamont garnered 40 percent. Lieberman had drawn significant pro-Israel funds and Jews from around the region went to Connecticut to help get out the vote.

-Jews voted for Democrats in their highest numbers in 14 years, an exit poll showed. Democrats garnered 87 percent of Jewish votes, the CNN exit poll said, and Republicans earned 10 percent. That was opposed to 55 percent of all respondents who voted Democrat and 44 who voted Republican. About 200 of the 10,207 respondents were Jewish. Jews also led all other religions in voting for Democrats.

[Please call professional exit poll interpreters and the discrepancy police immediately]

-Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), who is close to national Jewish leaders, is set to become speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives. Democrats were projected to win the House in Tuesday’s midterm congressional elections, which would make House party leader Pelosi the first woman to assume the speaker’s mantle, second in line to the presidency. Pelosi has strong ties to a number of Jewish groups, including the American Israel Public Affairs Committee; she is a close friend of Amy Friedkin, a past AIPAC president and like Pelosi, a resident of the Bay area in northern California.

-U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), who had strong backing among some pro-Israel activists, lost most of the Jewish vote in Pennsylvania, according to exit polls. Santorum conceded his seat to Bob Casey, who challenged Santorum´s support for the Iraq war and his conservative social policies. Santorum was one of the biggest beneficiaries of pro-Israel money, getting $2 million in support, more than any other candidate except for U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-Conn.) However, Casey drew even greater Jewish backing, and one exit poll suggested he garnered more than 80 percent of the Jewish vote.

-U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R-R.I.), who drew strong pro-Israel opposition, was projected to lose his bid for re-election to Sheldon Whitehouse. Whitehouse drew funding from the pro-Israel community. Chafee, the chairman of the Senate´s Middle East subcommittee, was strongly critical of Israel´s settlement policy and recently blocked the nomination of John Bolton as U.N. ambassador to protest a planned settlement expansion. Chafee was considered a casualty of profound opposition in Rhode Island to the Iraq war. The senator was not a backer of the war, but voters sought to punish President Bush by targeting the Republican Party.

-For the first time, a Muslim is set to become a U.S. congressman. Keith Ellison, a Democrat, easily defeated Alan Fine, a Jewish Republican, in a Minneapolis area district in Tuesday’s 2006 midterm elections. Ellison earned endorsements from leading Jews in the district and expressed regrets about his ties in the mid-1990s with the Nation of Islam, an anti-Semitic offshoot of Islam. He is due to visit Israel for the first time in the coming weeks as a guest of the Minnesota Jewish community

Comments

[Loy Mershimer]

This is really a distressing reality, when you think about it: even according to Republican numbers [best case scenario] 73.6 percent of Jewish voters voted against Republican candidates -- and this after the last few years of Republican support...

CNN's number of 87 percent is probably skewed upward, but the truth is probably somewhere in between those numbers -- somewhere around 80 percent of the Jewish vote went against Republicans.

Add in the around 60 percent of the Catholic vote that went against Republicans, and we have the results, in hand...

From my perspective, on both ends, both Jews and Catholic, it's a bit like spiritual suicide... and very disenheartening.

[Gail]

I hear you, Loy. It is interesting to note that younger Jews are more likely to vote Republican than older Jews are. There is some movement out there - though not enough.

The older generations - WW2 and Baby Boomers are tough nuts to crack.

Liberalism and the 60s mentality have a tight hold on my generation. They grew up with the religion of secularism and its mantras - separation of church and state, conservatives are evil bigots, all we are saying is give peace a chance etc etc. They are stuck on it, and can't step back and see things from any other perspective. They are completely inflexible and intolerant. The generation that didn't want to grow up has gotten a very bad case of OLD and SET IN THEIR WAYS. Ironic.

The WW2 generation, unfortunately won't be around that much longer. But speaking for my parents who lived through the Depression and WW2, they are afraid. They are afraid of Christian antisemitism - though if pressed, they will admit that it's a thing of the past, but they still remember Jews being chased down the streets by bullies. And they are afraid of another Depression. They remember FDR and the New Deal and are afraid to allow government to shrink and God forbid, there won't be a safety cushion just in case the rug is pulled out from under everyone.

There's more to it than that. Probably worth a long blog post when I have the time.